Климатические изменения как новый фактор международных отношений

Изменение климата и связанная с ним «зеленая» трансформация мировой экономики оказывают возрастающее влияние на международные отношения, в особенности после заключения Парижского соглашения в 2015 году. Параллельно с физическими рисками, исходящими непосредственно от негативных последствий климатических изменений, для государств актуализируются риски переходные, связанные с потенциальным ущербом для общества, политической системы и экономики от процессов глобального «зеленого» перехода. Для устранения физических рисков критически недостаточно текущих обязательств государств, взятых в рамках Парижского соглашения. Усиление же этих рисков ведет к повышению значимости обеспечения климатической безопасности государств. Переходные риски тесно связаны с фрагментацией мировой политики, возникающей вследствие разности климатических амбиций и несогласия между государствами на предмет масштабов и методов декарбонизации. В основе противоречий лежат такие факторы, как обеспеченность ископаемым топливом и место государств в энергетической геополитике; уровень социально-экономического развития; потенциал для использования возможностей «зеленой» трансформации; участие в международных климатических соглашениях и объединениях. Перед целым рядом рисков оказывается и Россия, вследствие чего ее интересы лежат в плоскости развития и продвижения собственного видения процессов декарбонизации, а также консолидации незападных государств в этой сфере.

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